Interview on Climate Change
4 May 2007
Arlington, Virginia USA
These
are the questions and answers used as background for an interview with the
Univision network (Ms Lourdes Stephen) about Climate Change. The English
portion of the interview ranged freely over these topics and more broadly. The
Spanish portion followed these Q & A’s closely. The project should be
broadcast in the middle of May.
- Why do we need information about climate change?
- Which group makes the predictions of climate change?
- Are you a climate scientist?
- What are the IPCC projections? Will we roast and our cities drown?
- Do all scientists agree with these projections?
- The IPCC prediction seems very bad.
- Will global warming be bad for us and our children? What about the fish and animals?
- Do you agree with IPCC?
- What do you think will happen?
- Are the scientists who disagree paid by the oil companies?
- What should we do about climate warming?
- Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us.
I.
Why do we need
information about climate change?
Human activities can affect
natural systems such as the global climate. Because climate change is a complex
and difficult issue, policymakers need an objective source of information about
the causes, its impacts, and possible responses.
II.
which group makes the
predictions of climate change?
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was organized 20 years ago to provide
information and advice about climate change. It uses published scientific
literature and does not conduct research.
III.
Are you a climate
scientist?
Yes. My specialty is
in the determination of the impacts of climate change. In order to determine
the impacts correctly, I must understand the science. I led IPCC work on five
impact analyses such as, Fisheries, Polar Regions, and Oceans.
IV.
What are the IPCC
projections? Will we roast and our cities drown?
· Over the next 100 years, the temperature will rise by
3 deg. C (5 F), most of the rise will be away from the equator, and the ocean
should rise 0.3 meters ( 1 ft.)
· Also, ocean acidity should rise, making it more
difficult for corals and other animals to make shells; hurricanes should become
stronger; heat waves and heavy rain should be more frequent; there will be less
ice and snow; and there should be more rain away from the equator.
V.
Do all scientists agree
with these projections?
Most scientists agree that
there has been a warming of 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 C) in 150 years. IPCC
scientists use computer models to predict temperatures, based on CO2 and other
gases. Other scientists believe that the models are not accurate because the
Earth system is too complex and important factors such as clouds cannot be
accurately included. They believe that CO2 is only part of the reason it is
warmer.
VI.
The IPCC PREDICTION
Seems very bad.
I think we need to consider
if the projections make sense, a reality check. In 150 years, the temperature
has increased only 1 deg. F ((0.6 C) and the ocean has risen about 20 cm (9
in.). The ocean has been rising since the end of the last ice age, and this
will continue. The warming has been mostly in the winter months and in the high
northern latitudes, away from the equator. For most of us, there is more
benefit than harm. During the previous warm period between ice ages, there was
no ice at the North Pole and the ocean was 15 ft. (5 m) higher. CO2 has also
been much higher during the past. Just 1,000 years ago the Vikings grew grapes
in Iceland, then the temperature became very cold for centuries.
VII.
Will global warming be
bad for us and our children? What about the fish and animals?
I don’t think warming is very
bad. It will change many things, but we will still have food and water. It will
be bad for many types of plants and animals, but better for others. All the
plants and animals, and humans, have endured warming and cooling before. It is
a fact of life, living on the Earth. Things will be different, not necessarily
bad. I studied the effects of global cooling during the 1970s, before we became
concerned about warming. Warming is very much better than global cooling, as
the ancient Vikings learned.
I have worked in the IPCC
process for many years. I think it is probably the best approach to find the
answers. The scientists really believe what they are saying. Of course this
does not make them correct. I think we need to accept their reports as valuable
advice about what could happen. We also need to listen to the other scientists
who disagree. There are many good arguments on both sides.
IX.
What do you think will
happen?
No one knows for sure
whether the Earth is going to keep warming, or since reaching a peak 9 years
ago (1998), we are at the start of a cooling cycle that will last several
decades or more. I think we will know more in a few years. We will know if the
models are true or false depending on whether the temperature falls or if it
increases, while CO2 continues to increase, as expected.
X.
Are the scientists who
disagree paid by the oil companies?
The scientists who disagree
with IPCC are often accused of being paid by oil companies or other industries.
This is not true for nearly all of them. Many are retired professors or are
scientists working at universities or government agencies. The counter argument
is that most IPCC scientists receive government money that is based on fear
about climate change and so their reports have exaggerations. But, I think
nearly all scientists say and write only what they believe to be true.
XI.
What should we do about
climate warming?
Our economies compete
in a global market and we must protect them, but we also must be better
custodians of our planet. We should use less energy of all types and we should
use more renewable and nuclear energy. As we use up all the oil and gas that
was produced when the Earth was TRULY warm, and CO2 was TRULY high, the prices
will increase and we will use less. This is not far in the future. We should
all be working to make this transition easy.
XII.
Thank you for sharing
your thoughts with us.
Thank you for the
opportunity to discuss this important issue with you. Many people are promoting
hysteria and fear and I am afraid we will destroy our society by doing
something stupid that will have no benefit. I applaud Univision for recognizing
the debate has not ended. If anyone wishes more information, I invite them to
my website at http://ClimateChangeFacts.info .
Dr. John T. Everett
On the web at
http://www.ClimateChangeFacts.info
and
http://www.TechnologySite.org